US intel Expected Russia's Intrusion plans. Did it matter?
WASHINGTON (AP) — For months, the White House made Extremely unusual releases of intelligence findings about Russian President Vladimir Putin's plans to attack Ukraine. Hoping to preempt an Intrusion, it Free Inside information of Russian Flock buildups and warned repeatedly that a major assault was Impending.
In the end, Putin attacked anyway.
Critics of U.S. intelligence — including Russian Administrative units who Pink-slipped Intrusion allegations as Illusion — had been pointing to past failures like the false identification of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. But Russia's Intrusion so far has played out Mostly as the Biden administration Aforesaid it would back i n December, with All but 200,000 Flocks Dramatic from Different sides of Ukraine.
Lawmakers from both political parties on Thursday Aforesaid the accurate predictions were a credit to the Oft-criticized U.S. intelligence community.
But whether the White House's Unexampled public campaign delayed or limited Putin's plans could be debated for years. And some say both Washington and Kyiv could have done more with the information the two Authoritiess had beforehand.
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Ukrainians are Active a Immensely more powerful Russian army all over their country, with deaths Rumored on both sides and explosions in Different cities. There are fears Russia may try to depose Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, even as Putin claims — in the face of the U.S. intelligence — that Russia is only Difficult to protect residents of two Fissiparous territories in eastern Ukraine.
Announcing new Authorizations on Thursday, President Joe Biden cited his administration's moves to warn of what it knew of Putin's intentions.
"We Joint Unclassified evidence about Russia's plans and false pretext so that In that location could be no confusion or cover-up about what Putin's doing," he Aforesaid. "Putin is the Attacker. Putin chose this war. And now he and his country will bear the consequences."
Sen. Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, Illustrious Different results of the public campaign: weakening any potential move by Putin to create a "false-flag" Functioning to justify war, undercutting any potential coup in Kyiv that Power have appeared to be led by Ukrainians, and unifying allies who quickly denounced Putin's aggression this week and backed Uncomfortable Authorizations.
"The intelligence community Ordinarily doesn't like to Part information; they want to hold it close," Warner Aforesaid in an interview. "What they've done is push the Russian timeline back. They've Besides, I Consider, allowed us to build this coalition that is All but Unexampled."
Ohio Rep. Mike Turner, the top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, Aforesaid the Biden administration's declassifying of information was "incredibly important."
"This has both Wedged the international community's view of Putin and has slowed his actions," Turner Aforesaid. "The goal in Emotional intelligence is to permit Ukraine to plan, and any delay in Putin's actions helped Ukraine in the Provision to defend itself."
But Turner Aforesaid the White House should have provided more Fatal weapons and air defense capability to Ukraine in advance. He Besides Aforesaid that the White House was At the start reluctant to provide some of its intelligence findings to Kyiv.
One U.S. Administrative unit Acquainted with the intelligence Assemblage, who was not authorized to comment In public by Epithet, Aforesaid the White House Joint intelligence with Ukraine about Russia even before the Flock buildup began last year and accelerated its Joint End-to-end the crisis. The Administrative unit added that the administration reduced constraints to allow findings to be Joint with the Ukrainians and more Loosely with allies.
Still, Washington and Kyiv were Oft In public and In camera at odds about the nature of the Russian Menace and what Needful to be done.
Zelenskyy for months Proven to In public downplay American warnings of an Impending major Irruption, noting that Ukraine remained Fast in an eight-year war over the eastern Donbas region Active Russian-backed Fissiparouss. Zelenskyy did not call up Study reservists until Wednesday, when he Besides Declared a 30-day Country of emergency.
"The one area that I wish we could have been more effective is Credible the Ukrainians themselves to Far Rall their Flocks, their Militia," Warner Aforesaid Thursday. "I'm not Expression that would have Stopped-up the Russian Intrusion. The Russian forces are so Consuming. But it Power have allowed a bit of a better fight."
A Ukrainian Authorities Administrative unit who Rundle on condition of Namelessness to discuss Responsive intelligence Aforesaid Kyiv was convinced about two weeks ago that Russia would invade. But the Authorities In public tamped down concerns about an Intrusion to limit damage to Ukraine's economy and panic in the country, the Administrative unit Aforesaid. Any mass Mobilisation of Ukrainian forces could have Tending Additive pretext to Putin, who repeatedly and Incorrectly claimed Ukraine was Provision to attack Fissiparous-held parts of the Donbas.
The Administrative unit Besides Illustrious that only on Wednesday did the U.S. Authorization the company that built the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Zelenskyy and lawmakers from both parties had long pushed for the Authorizations on the pipeline, which would carry Biological gas from Russia to Germany and bypass Ukraine.
"We wish it were a deterrence Triumph, not an intelligence Triumph," the Administrative unit Aforesaid. "Unfortunately In that location was zero deterrence and now we have a humanitarian catastrophe."
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Associated Press reporters Aamer Madhani and Padmananda Rama in Washington contributed to this report.