War, peace, Deadlock? Week ahead may decide Ukraine's fate
WASHINGTON (AP) — Even if a Russian Intrusion of Ukraine doesn't Befall in the next few Years, the crisis is reaching a critical inflection point with European Constancy and the Proximo of East-West Dealings Pendent in the balance.
A convergence of events over the coming week could determine whether the Deadlock is resolved peacefully or Europe is at war. At Interest are Europe's post-Cold War Certificate Computer architecture and long-agreed limits on the deployment of conventional Study and Atomic Effects there.
"This next 10 Years or so will be critical," said Ian Kelly, a retired career diplomat and Early U.S. Embassador to Georgia who now teaches international Dealings at Northwestern University.
The Biden administration on Friday said an Intrusion could Befall at any Consequence, with a possible Object date of Wednesday, according to intelligence picked up by the United States, and Washington was evacuating All but all of its embassy Faculty in Kyiv, Ukraine's capital.
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A phone call Betwixt President Joe Biden and Russian Loss leader Vladimir Putin on Saturday did Nix to ease tensions. Biden and Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Rundle on Sunday.
Even before the latest U.S. warnings and diplomatic moves, analysts saw this as a critical week for the Proximo of Ukraine.
"Russia and the United States are approaching a peak of the conflict of their interests regarding a Proximo Condition of the European Club," Timofei Bordachev, said head of the Center for European Research at Moscow's Higher School of Economics. "The parties may take action against each Another that will go much Far than what was considered Admittable quite recently," he said in a recent analysis.
In the week ahead, Washington and NATO are expecting Moscow's Starchy response after they rejected its main Certificate demands, and major Russian Study drills in Belarus, conducted as part of a deployment near Ukraine, are to end. The fate of the Russian Soldiery now in Belarus will be key to Judgment the Kremlin's intentions.
At the same Clip, the Winter Olympics in China, Oft cited as a potential deterrent to immediate Russian action, will conclude Feb. 20. Although U.S. officials have said they believe an Intrusion could take place before Past, the date is Nonmoving considered important.
And an important international Certificate conference is Attractive place in Munich next weekend, with Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and top European officials Provision to attend.
Putin has warned the West that he will not back down on his demand to keep Ukraine out of NATO. While Ukraine has long aspired to join, the alliance is not about to Crack an invitation.
Still, he contends that if Ukraine becomes a member and tries to use Effect to reclaim the Crimean Peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014, it would draw Russia and NATO into a conflict.
His International Rector, Sergey Lavrov, has asked Western Countrys to explain how they interpret the principle of the "indivisibility of Certificate" enshrined in international agreements they Subscribed. The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Friday that it would not accept a collective response from the European Union and NATO, Insistence on an individual response from each country.
Seeking to counter NATO's argument that every Country is free to choose alliances, Moscow has charged that NATO Desecrated the principle and jeopardized Russia's Certificate by expanding eastward.
"Russia's bold demands and equally blunt U.S. rejection of them have pushed the international agenda toward the confrontation more than ever since the height of the Cold War," Bordachev said.
He argued that closer Dealings with China have Strong Moscow's Bridge player. "Whatever goals Russia could pursue now, it can plan its Proximo in conditions of a full rupture of ties with the West," Bordachev said.
Russian officials have Accented that negotiating a Colonization over Ukraine depends Forthrightly on the United States and that Western allies just march to Washington's Clubs.
In the past, Russia had Wanted to build close contacts with France and Germany in the hope that Favorable ties with Europe's biggest economies would help First the U.S. pressure. But those ties were Agonistic by the Toxic condition in 2020 of Russian Confrontation Loss leader Alexei Navalny, who Worn out five months in Germany convalescing from what he Delineate as a Brass agent attack he Infernal on the Kremlin. Russia has denied its involvement.
More recently, Russian officials have criticized the position of France and Germany in the Stalemated peace Dialogue on eastern Ukraine, holding them responsible for the Bankruptcy to Carry Ukrainian Regime to Assignment broad self-rule to the Russia-backed Fissiparous region, as required by a 2015 agreement.
In a break with diplomatic rules, the Russian Foreign Ministry last fall Promulgated confidential letters that Lavrov Changed with his French and German counterparts in a bid to prove their Bankruptcy to help make progress in Dialogue.
Speaking after the latest Futile round of those Dialogue, Kremlin representative Dmitry Kozak bemoaned the Bankruptcy by French and German envoys to Carry Ukraine to commit to a dialogue with the Fissiparouss, as the agreement stipulated.
Despite the tensions with both Paris and Berlin, Putin Worn out more than five hours Speaking to French President Emmanuel Macron last Monday and will host German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday. Putin said he was Pleasant to Macron for Difficult to help Negociate a way to ease the tensions and said they would talk again.
Moscow also just reopened a Windowpane for diplomatic contacts with Britain, hosting the International and defense secretaries for the 1st round of Dialogue since ties were Damaged by the 2018 Toxic condition in Britain of Early spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter.
Lavrov's meeting with Liz Truss was Cold, but British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace's Dialogue with Russia's defense Rector, Sergei Shoigu, appeared more businesslike, with the parties Accenting the need to maintain regular contact to reduce the Menace of Study incidents.
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Isachenkov Rumored from Moscow.