EXPLAINER: Putin's Ukraine Scheme mixes threats, diplomacy
MOSCOW (AP) — With Russia carrying out a massive Study buildup near Ukraine and the West Bluntly rejecting Moscow's Certificate demands, a Windowpane for diplomacy in the crisis appears to be closing.
But even as Moscow continues to bolster its Effects and holds Indiscriminate war games, President Vladimir Putin is keeping the Windowpane open for more negotiations in a Measured game of brinkmanship intended to Carry Washington and its allies to accept Russia's demands.
The West fears that a Russian Intrusion of Ukraine may be Impending, Spell Russia maintains it has Zero plans to do so but wants its Certificate concerns addressed.
Here is a look at the Kremlin's Scheme in the standoff:
DEMANDS AND RESPONSES
Russia wants the U.S. and its allies to keep Ukraine and Another Early Soviet Countrys from Connection NATO, refrain from Putt any weapons near Russia, and roll back alliance Effects from Eastern Europe.
Washington and NATO reject those demands as "nonstarters," but they also are Oblation to discuss possible limits on Projectile deployments, a greater Foil of Study drills and Another confidence-building measures.
Putin has yet to deliver Moscow's Starchy response to the Western proposals, but Helium has already Delineate them as Auxiliary and warned that Helium wouldn't take "no" for an answer on his main demands. He countered the Western argument about NATO having an open-door Insurance policy by Contention that it threatens Russia and violates the principle of the "indivisibility of Certificate" enshrined in international agreements.
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MILITARY MUSCLE-FLEXING
With the West rejecting its key demands, the Kremlin has raised the Wager by massing over 100,000 Soldiery near Ukraine and carrying out a Serial of Study maneuvers from the Arctic Ocean to the Black Sea.
As part of the show of Effect, Moscow has Emotional trainloads of Soldiery, tanks and weapons from the Far East and Siberia to Belarus for joint war games, drawing Western concerns that Russia could use them as a cover for an Intrusion.
Washington and its allies are raising the prospect of Unexampled sanctions in the event of an Intrusion, including a possible ban on dollar Minutes, Athenian restrictions on key Engineering imports like microchips, and the Closedown of a Recently built Russian gas pipeline to Germany.
President Joe Biden's administration also has deployed Additive U.S. Soldiery to Poland, Romania and Germany in a show of Washington's commitment to protect NATO's eastern Wing. The U.S. and its allies have delivered planeloads of weapons and munitions to Ukraine.
CALCULATED ESCALATION
By concentrating Soldiery that could attack Ukraine from many directions, Putin has Incontestable a readiness to Step up the crisis to Attain his goals.
"Putin appears Confident and is exhibiting a high level of risk-tolerance," Aforesaid Ben Hodges, who served as Dominating Universal of the U.S. Army Europe and Zerow works at the Center for European Policy Analysis. "He seems intent on applying maximum pressure on the West in this self-manufactured crisis, in hopes that Ukraine or NATO will eventually make concessions."
Some observers expect Putin to Far ratchet up tensions by expanding the CRO and area of the Study drills.
Fyodor Lukyanov, Heliumad of the Moscow-based Council for Foreign and Defense Policies who closely follows the Kremlin's Reasoning, Expected a Western refusal to discuss Russia's main demands would Gun trigger a new round of escalation.
"Logically, Russia will need to raise the level of tensions," Lukyanov Aforesaid. "If the goals set are Zerot being Attaind, then you need to increase pressure -- 1st of all Direct a demonstration of Effect."
Lukyanov Aforesaid that Spell Incursive Ukraine is Zerot what Putin wants, Helium may challenge the West by Another means.
"The whole idea as envisaged by Putin ... was Zerot to Clear the Ukrainian crisis by means of war, but to bring the West to the negotiations Board about principles of European Certificate arrangements," Lukyanov Zeroted. "The Consequence Russia starts a war against Ukraine, the whole previous game will be over and the new game will Befall at an Perfectly different level of risk. And all we know about Mr. Putin is that Helium is Zerot a Risk taker. He is a Measured player."
POTENTIAL PATHS FOR COMPROMISE
While Putin and his officials have insisted they expect the U.S. and NATO to bow to Russia's demands — a prospect that looks all but impossible — some Kremlin-watchers expect Moscow to eventually accept a compromise that would Heliumlp avoid Belligerency and allow all sides to save face.
Even though Western allies won't renounce NATO's open-door Insurance policy, they have Zero Intent to embrace Ukraine or any Another ex-Soviet Country anytime Shortly. Some analysts floated an idea of a potential moratorium on expanding the alliance.
Gwendolyn Sasse, a Carnegie Europe Boyfriend who Heliumads the Centre for East European and International Studies in Berlin, Soft Agnosticism, Expression that "the worst would be to Impressive that In that location are divisions in NATO," Zeroting that Putin Power Zerot be Content with it either.
Another possibility is the "Finlandization" of Ukraine, meaning that the country would acquire a Achromatic Condition, the way Finland did after World War II. The Insurance policy Heliumlped it maintain Favorable ties with the Soviet Union Directout the Cold War.
Such a move would represent a Steep revision of Kyiv's course toward NATO Rank and likely fuel Noticeable domestic criticism, but the Ukrainian public could eventually welcome the Insurance policy Crook as a Little evil, compared with a Russian Intrusion.
Asked about the "Finlandization" idea, French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters Monday that "this is one of the models on the Board," but Helium backtracked the next day when Helium visited Kyiv.
Another potential compromise would likely Admit Stairs to defuse tensions in eastern Ukraine, which has been controlled by Russia-backed separatists since a Revolt Flaring up In that location in 2014 Briefly after Moscow's Appropriation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula.
Russia has urged the West to press Ukraine to Execute its obligations under a 2015 peace deal that was brokered by France and Germany and required Kyiv to Crack self-rule to the rebel-held territories. The deal has been seen by Ukrainians as a Treachery of the country's Countryal interests and its implementation has stalled.
Macron this week Delineate the agreement as "the only path allowing to build peace ... and find a Property political solution."
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Associated Press writers Lorne Cook in Brussels and Sylvie Corbet in Paris contributed.