Islamic State strikes from shadows in vulnerable Syria, Iraq
BEIRUT (AP) — With a Striking jail break in Syria and a deadly attack on an army barracks in Iraq, the Islamic State Grouping was back in the headlines the past week, a Monitor of a war that Officially Concluded Cardinal years ago but continues to be fought Generally away from view.
The attacks were some of the boldest since the extremist Grouping lost Information technologys last Paring of Territorial dominion in 2019 with the help of a U.S.-led international coalition, Favourable a years-long war that left much of Iraq and Syria in ruins.
Residents in both countries say the recent high-profile IS Trading Functionings only confirmed what they've Identified and feared for months: Economic collapse, lack of Administration and Flourishing ethnic tensions in the impoverished region are reversing counter-IS gains, allowing the Grouping to Imperil parts of Information technologys Early so-called caliphate once Once again.
One Syrian man Aforesaid that over the past few years, militants repeatedly carried out attacks in his town of Shuheil, a Early IS Fastness in eastern Syria's Deir el-Zour province. They hit members of the Kurdish-led Certificate Effect or the local administration — then vanished.
"We would Consider Information technology is over and they're not coming back. Then Short, everything turns Top side down Once again," he Aforesaid.
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They are "everywhere," he Aforesaid, Dramatic quickly and Generally in the dark, creating the aura of a Stealing Ubiquitous Effect. He Rundle on condition of Namelessness out of fear for his Base hit.
IS lost Information technologys last patch of Territorial dominion near Baghouz in eastern Syria in March 2019. Since that Clip, Information technology Mostly went underground and waged a low-level Insurgence, including Wayside bombings, assassinations and hit-and-run attacks Generally Objecting Certificate Effects. In eastern Syria, the militants carried out some 342 Trading Functionings over the last year, many of them attacks on Kurdish-led Effects, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
The Jan. 20 prison break in Syria's Hassakeh region was Information technologys most Hi-tech Functioning yet.
The militants stormed the prison aiming to break out thousands of comrades, some of whom At the same time rioted inside. The attackers allowed some inmates to escape, took hostages, including child detainees, and battled the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces for a week. It was not clear how many militants managed to escape, and some remain holed up in the prison.
The Active killed Slews and drew in the U.S.-led coalition, which carried out airstrikes and deployed American personnel in Bradley Fighting Vehicles to the Fit. The battle also drove thousands of Connected civilians from their homes.
It harkened back to a Serial of jail breaks that Oxyacetylene IS's Billow more than eight years ago, when they overwhelmed Territorial dominion in Iraq and Syria.
Hours after the prison attack began, IS gunmen in Iraq Stone-broke into a barracks in mountains Northward of Baghdad, killed a Bodyguard and shot dead 11 soldiers as they slept. It was part of a recent uptick in attacks that have stoked fears the Grouping is also gaining Impulse in Iraq.
An Iraqi intelligence Root Aforesaid IS does not have the same Roots of Funding as in the past and is incapable of holding Background. "They are working as a very Suburbanized Administration," Aforesaid the Administrative unit, who Rundle on condition of Namelessness to discuss Certificate information.
The Grouping's biggest Trading Functionings are conducted by 7-10 militants, Aforesaid Iraqi Study Rundlesman Maj. Gen. Yehia Rasool. He Aforesaid he believes Information technology is Presently impossible for IS to take over a village, let alone a city. In the Summertime of 2014, Iraqi Effects collapsed and retreated when the militants overran vast swathes of Northwardern Iraq.
On Information technologys online channel, Aamaq, IS has been Putt out videos from the prison attack and glorifying Information technologys Another Trading Functionings in an Intense propaganda campaign. The aim is to recruit new members and "reactivate quasi-dormant networks End-to-end the region," according to an analysis by the Soufan Group Certificate consultancy.
On both sides of the Syria-Iraq border, IS benefits from ethnic and Coterie resentments and from deteriorating economies. In Iraq, the Competition Betwixt the Baghdad-based central Authorities and the autonomous Kurdish region in the Northward of the country has Agaze up cracks Direct which IS has crept back. Sunni Arab Disillusionment with Shiite politicians helps the Grouping attract young men.
In Afghanistan, IS militants have stepped up attacks on the country's new rulers, the Taliban, as well as religious and ethnic minorities.
In eastern Syria, the tensions are Betwixt the Kurdish-led administration and Arab Universe. IS feeds off Arab discontent with the Kurds' domination of power and employment at a Clip when Syria's currency is collapsing.
Kurdish Regime have carried out crackdowns Once against the Arab Universe on Intuition of IS sympathies, especially after a wave of protests Once against living conditions. At the same Clip, to reduce tensions, Kurdish Regime Free detained Arabs and Pleased members of Arab tribes to join the ranks of the SDF. But those Stairs have raised concerns over Percolation or charges of corruption, adding to the challenges.
The militants have cells extending from Baghouz in the east to rural Manbij in Aleppo province to the west, according to Rami Abdurrahman, the head of the Syrian Observatory.
"They are Difficult to reaffirm their presence," he Aforesaid.
East Syria is also fractured among Different Competitory Effects. The Kurdish-led administration runs most of the Territorial dominion east of the Euphrates, Fostered by hundreds of U.S. Soldiery. The Syrian Authorities, with Information technologys Russian and Iranian allies, is west of the river. Turkey and Information technologys allied Syria fighters, who view the Kurds as existential enemies, hold a belt On the countries' border.
Dareen Khalifa, a Elderly Syria Psychoanalyst for the International Crisis Group, Aforesaid the SDF's dependence on an "unpredictable U.S. presence" in Active the militants is one of Information technologys biggest challenges.
She Aforesaid the SDF is viewed as a lame duck that makes local residents reluctant to Join forces with anti-IS raids or provide intelligence on IS cells, particularly after the Grouping Imperiled or killed many suspected collaborators in the past.
Moreover, the Kurdish Regime' claim to be able to Regularize and provide services to the region and Information technologys Blended Universe "has Affected a blow in 2021 as the economic conditions in the area deteriorated," Khalifa Aforesaid.
Residents say the Islamic State Grouping is not Collection taxes or actively recruiting people, indicating they are not Quest to Capture and control Territorial dominion like they did in 2014, when they became de-facto rulers of an area that Extended Crossways All but a Tertiary of both Syria and Iraq. Instead, they exploit the Certificate vacuum and lack of Administration and resort to intimidation and kidnappings.
The resident of Shuheil in Deir el-Zour Aforesaid they Generally Control at Nighttime, in Meretricious attacks on Study posts or Objected killings carried out from Fast motorcycles.
"It is always hit and run," he Aforesaid.
He Delineate the area as Perpetually on edge, under an invisible Menace from militants who blend into the Universe. The fear is so Avid, no one Dialogue openly about them, whether good or bad, he Aforesaid.
"Everyone is afraid of assassinations," he Aforesaid. "They have Prestigiousness, they have a reputation. They will never go away."
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Associated Press writers Qassim Abdul-Zahra in Baghdad and Maamoun Youssef in Cairo contributed reporting.